Sami widzicie, ze cena kruszcow znowu pomalenku rosnie.
Ponizej podaje tekst ukradziony przeze mnie z ADVFN po angielsku,
ktory wyjasnia dlaczego nalezy oczekiwac duzego wzrostu ceny zlota
w nastepnych 30 dniach a srebra w ciagu 60 dni.
To ile ja mam tych srebrnych dzbanuszkow, zono? I lepiej pilnuj tych
lyzek i widelcow co je przywiozlem do Warsiawki przed paru tygodniami.
Przetrzasaj gosciom kieszenie.

f



Major Banks <#> Buy Gold and Silver
By Patrick A. Heller, Market Update
May 04, 2009


Three times since late 2005, commodity analyst Adrian Douglas predicted
major rises in the price of gold. In November 2005, when gold was about
$450, he forecast gold reaching $720 after noticing a large increase in
the number of call options <#> in shares of gold mining companies <#>.
In August 2007, when gold was $660, he noticed a significant increase in
call options for the COMEX December 2007 gold contracts, where gold
surpassed $1,000 seven months later.

In July 2008, Douglas noted a huge build-up of COMEX December 2008 call
options. Shortly after his prediction of higher gold prices by year end,
two large banks (probably JPMorgan Chase and HSBC <#>) sold short gold
futures equal to 10 percent of annual worldwide gold production.
Douglas's prediction of a major rise in the price of gold by the end of
December 2008 did not occur, but he still expects a major blow up of the
price.

Douglas's research has been highly reliable and his predictions have a
better track record than most forecasters. When he has something to say,
I listen.

Last week, Douglas reported receiving information from two confidential
sources that JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs had been buying large
amounts of COMEX gold and silver call options in both the June 2009 and
December 2009 contracts.

His analysis of the COMEX June 2009 gold option contracts shows that
calls (which are contracts where the owner has the option to demand
delivery at the contract price prior to the expiration date) outnumber
puts (where the owner has the option to demand that the seller of the
contract buy at the contract price up to the expiration date) by more
than 80 percent. In addition to being overly skewed toward call
contracts, there is an exceptionally large quantity of contracts.

The COMEX December 2009 gold option call contracts outnumber puts by 130
percent.

In the silver market, the COMEX June 2009 call options exceed puts by 80
percent. December 2009 call options exceed puts by 68 percent.

Activity in options for both metals is especially concentrated in the
June and December contracts.

Douglas considers options traders generally to be highly sophisticated
speculators. They can purchase large quantities of contracts at very low
prices if the strike prices are considered to be "out of the money <#>"
(that is, it is so far from current spot prices that the seller of the
contract thinks there is little likelihood that the contract will be
executed). Such traders make a profit if they acquire their options
ahead of the major price moves in the futures markets.

Douglas interprets this data to mean that smart money is being
positioned in anticipation of a massive rise in the price of gold within
30 days and in silver's price within the next 60 days. Then he looks for
another jump in prices by December. There could be a price pullback in
between the two major rises.

Douglas included two other bits of data as part of this analysis. First
he notes that the call/put ratio in the stock market is usually a
contrary indicator because such options are mostly purchased by
unsophisticated retail investors <#> who often get it wrong. In
contrast, the bulk of activity in precious metals options tends to be
from sophisticated investors. Second, both the gold and silver futures
markets are now bordering on backwardation, which signals a near-term
major physical supply shortage.

There were several developments last week that added more bad news for
the economy, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the credibility of the
U.S. government. To save space, I will omit discussion of the Chrysler
bankruptcy and the developing fiasco of the "stress tests" of U.S. banks.

Warren Buffet, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and one of the world's richest
investors, told the company's <#> 35,000 shareholders over the weekend
that they should expect higher inflation and a significant decline in
the value of the U.S. dollar. Buffet is not a gold bug by any means,
but, to unsophisticated investors, his forecast makes a strong case for
owning precious metals

do góry

"fatso" <f...@n...com> wrote in message
news:uqnMl.31379$TA6.13610@newsfe09.ams2...
> Sami widzicie, ze cena kruszcow znowu pomalenku rosnie.
> Ponizej podaje tekst ukradziony przeze mnie z ADVFN po angielsku,
> ktory wyjasnia dlaczego nalezy oczekiwac duzego wzrostu ceny zlota
> w nastepnych 30 dniach a srebra w ciagu 60 dni.
> To ile ja mam tych srebrnych dzbanuszkow, zono? I lepiej pilnuj tych
> lyzek i widelcow co je przywiozlem do Warsiawki przed paru tygodniami.
> Przetrzasaj gosciom kieszenie.
>
> f

>(...)
> His analysis of the COMEX June 2009 gold option contracts shows that calls
> (which are contracts where the owner has the option to demand delivery at
> the contract price prior to the expiration date) outnumber puts (where the
> owner has the option to demand that the seller of the contract buy at the
> contract price up to the expiration date) by more than 80 percent. In
> addition to being overly skewed toward call contracts, there is an
> exceptionally large quantity of contracts. (...)


dobrze ze ten Patrick A. Heller wyjasnia doglebnie co to sa opcje call i put
w tym tekscie.
Tak to brzmi duzo bardziej "profesjonalnie". Kim jest ten Douglas ?
Bo on chyba nie musi tlumaczyc takich "zawilosci" swoim czytelnikom...

george

do góry

Dnia Wed, 06 May 2009 22:37:30 +0100, fatso napisał(a):

> Sami widzicie, ze cena kruszcow znowu pomalenku rosnie. Ponizej podaje
> tekst ukradziony przeze mnie z ADVFN po angielsku, ktory wyjasnia
> dlaczego nalezy oczekiwac duzego wzrostu ceny zlota w nastepnych 30
> dniach a srebra w ciagu 60 dni. To ile ja mam tych srebrnych
> dzbanuszkow, zono? I lepiej pilnuj tych lyzek i widelcow co je
> przywiozlem do Warsiawki przed paru tygodniami. Przetrzasaj gosciom
> kieszenie.

Mam chyba ze 3 srebrne łyżeczki, po dziadku mnie się ostało, to 60 dni
powiadasz ;)





--

do góry

Uzytkownik "fatso" <f...@n...com> napisal w wiadomosci
news:uqnMl.31379$TA6.13610@newsfe09.ams2...
> Sami widzicie, ze cena kruszcow znowu pomalenku rosnie.
> Ponizej podaje tekst ukradziony przeze mnie z ADVFN po angielsku,
> ktory wyjasnia dlaczego nalezy oczekiwac duzego wzrostu ceny zlota
> w nastepnych 30 dniach a srebra w ciagu 60 dni.

Ogólnie wzrostowa tendencje mozna zaobserwowac na surowcach.

do góry