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eGospodarka.plFinanseGrupypl.biznes.wgpwDno giełdowe wyprzedza dno recesji
Ilość wypowiedzi w tym wątku: 4

  • 1. Data: 2009-01-31 13:39:33
    Temat: Dno giełdowe wyprzedza dno recesji
    Od: "dejwidziu" <d...@w...pl>



    Obecna sytuacja rynków finansowych także na tle sytuacji gospodarczej do
    złudzenia przypomina jeden z najbardziej dramatycznych okresów dekoniunktury
    giełdowej z połowy lat siedemdziesiątych ubiegłego stulecia. Recesji w
    światowej gospodarce przysłużyły się wówczas także rekordowe ceny surowców
    po wstrzymaniu przez kraje arabskie dostaw ropy naftowej do krajów
    zachodnich w odwecie za poparcie przez te ostatnie Izraela w wojnie Jom
    Kippur z Egiptem (pierwszy kryzys naftowy). Głęboka 16-miesięczna recesja w
    gospodarce USA rozpoczęta wg National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) w
    1973 roku, do 9 grudnia 1974 roku sprowadziła indeks Dow Jones Industrial
    Average aż o 46,6% poniżej szczytu hossy z 11 stycznia 1973 roku. W
    powojennej historii Wall Street była to największa zniżka przekraczająca swą
    skalą zarówno krach z 1987 roku (spadek o 41,2%) jak też bessę po pęknięciu
    bańki internetowej na początku obecnego milenium (spadek o 38,7%). Przez
    ponad 30 lat wydawało się, że ten smutny rekord będzie trudny do pobicia. W
    piątek 21 listopada bieżącego roku Średnia Przemysłowa zanotowała jednak
    minimum, które od szczytu z 11 października 2007 roku oznaczało spadek o
    47,5%. Większe od obecnych straty wystąpiły jedynie w okresie II wojny
    światowej (do 1942 roku) oraz w czasie Wielkiego Kryzysu.


    Recesja z lat 1973-75 była jednocześnie jednym z niewielu okresów, kiedy
    Produkt Krajowy Brutto Stanów Zjednoczonych utrzymywał ujemną dynamikę przez
    3 kolejne kwartały. Pierwszy w czarnej serii był trzeci kwartał 1974 roku
    (spadek PKB o 3,8%). W czwartym kwartale 1974 roku gospodarka zwolniła o
    1,6%, a w pierwszym kwartale 1975 roku ujemne PKB osiągnęło poziom -4,7%.
    Historia Wall Street dowodzi jednak, że rynek akcji zaczyna się podnosić na
    około pół roku przed widocznymi oznakami poprawy sytuacji gospodarczej. Tak
    też było w 1974 roku, kiedy pierwszy w serii trzech kwartałów z ujemnym PKB
    pokrył się z dnem giełdowym indeksu szerokiego rynku S&P500 zanotowanym 4
    października 1974 roku Do połowy marca 1975 roku, kiedy recesja w USA
    zbliżała się już do końca, indeks ten wzrósł o 42,8% nie schodząc już nigdy
    do poziomu dna z października 1974 roku. Według NBER dno giełdowe 1974 roku
    przypadło na początku dwunastego miesiąca recesji. W obecnej bessie
    najniższy punkt indeks S&P500 zanotował 21 listopada, a więc również w
    dwunastym miesiącu recesji, która według NBER rozpoczęła się za oceanem w
    grudniu 2007 roku.

    Podobieństwo giełdowej bessy z lat 1973-74 do obecnej 2007-2008 jest
    uderzające. Świadczy o tym nie tylko porównywalna skala spadków i warunki
    makroekonomiczne, ale także układ techniczny amerykańskiego indeksu S&P500.
    Identyczna struktura spadkowych fal, skrajny poziom emocji, strachu i
    wyprzedania rynku to tylko niektóre z przesłanek pozwalających przypuszczać,
    że rynek niedźwiedzia zakończył się w listopadzie ubiegłego roku.


    Jacek Rzeźniczek
    Secus Asset Management



    http://www.inwestycje.pl/gpw/aktualnosci_gpw/gospoda
    rka_w_dol__gielda_niekoniecznie;48404;0.html


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    end


  • 2. Data: 2009-01-31 13:41:53
    Temat: Re: Dno giełdowe wyprzedza dno recesji
    Od: "dejwidziu" <d...@w...pl>


    >
    > Obecna sytuacja rynków finansowych także na tle sytuacji gospodarczej do
    > złudzenia przypomina jeden z najbardziej dramatycznych okresów
    > dekoniunktury giełdowej z połowy lat siedemdziesiątych ubiegłego stulecia.
    > Recesji w światowej gospodarce przysłużyły się wówczas także rekordowe
    > ceny surowców po wstrzymaniu przez kraje arabskie dostaw ropy naftowej do
    > krajów zachodnich w odwecie za poparcie przez te ostatnie Izraela w wojnie
    > Jom Kippur z Egiptem (pierwszy kryzys naftowy). Głęboka 16-miesięczna
    > recesja w gospodarce USA rozpoczęta wg National Bureau of Economic
    > Research (NBER) w 1973 roku, do 9 grudnia 1974 roku sprowadziła indeks Dow
    > Jones Industrial Average aż o 46,6% poniżej szczytu hossy z 11 stycznia
    > 1973 roku. W powojennej historii Wall Street była to największa zniżka
    > przekraczająca swą skalą zarówno krach z 1987 roku (spadek o 41,2%) jak
    > też bessę po pęknięciu bańki internetowej na początku obecnego milenium
    > (spadek o 38,7%). Przez ponad 30 lat wydawało się, że ten smutny rekord
    > będzie trudny do pobicia. W piątek 21 listopada bieżącego roku Średnia
    > Przemysłowa zanotowała jednak minimum, które od szczytu z 11 października
    > 2007 roku oznaczało spadek o 47,5%. Większe od obecnych straty wystąpiły
    > jedynie w okresie II wojny światowej (do 1942 roku) oraz w czasie
    > Wielkiego Kryzysu.
    >
    >
    > Recesja z lat 1973-75 była jednocześnie jednym z niewielu okresów, kiedy
    > Produkt Krajowy Brutto Stanów Zjednoczonych utrzymywał ujemną dynamikę
    > przez 3 kolejne kwartały. Pierwszy w czarnej serii był trzeci kwartał 1974
    > roku (spadek PKB o 3,8%). W czwartym kwartale 1974 roku gospodarka
    > zwolniła o 1,6%, a w pierwszym kwartale 1975 roku ujemne PKB osiągnęło
    > poziom -4,7%. Historia Wall Street dowodzi jednak, że rynek akcji zaczyna
    > się podnosić na około pół roku przed widocznymi oznakami poprawy sytuacji
    > gospodarczej. Tak też było w 1974 roku, kiedy pierwszy w serii trzech
    > kwartałów z ujemnym PKB pokrył się z dnem giełdowym indeksu szerokiego
    > rynku S&P500 zanotowanym 4 października 1974 roku Do połowy marca 1975
    > roku, kiedy recesja w USA zbliżała się już do końca, indeks ten wzrósł o
    > 42,8% nie schodząc już nigdy do poziomu dna z października 1974 roku.
    > Według NBER dno giełdowe 1974 roku przypadło na początku dwunastego
    > miesiąca recesji. W obecnej bessie najniższy punkt indeks S&P500 zanotował
    > 21 listopada, a więc również w dwunastym miesiącu recesji, która według
    > NBER rozpoczęła się za oceanem w grudniu 2007 roku.
    >
    > Podobieństwo giełdowej bessy z lat 1973-74 do obecnej 2007-2008 jest
    > uderzające. Świadczy o tym nie tylko porównywalna skala spadków i warunki
    > makroekonomiczne, ale także układ techniczny amerykańskiego indeksu
    > S&P500. Identyczna struktura spadkowych fal, skrajny poziom emocji,
    > strachu i wyprzedania rynku to tylko niektóre z przesłanek pozwalających
    > przypuszczać, że rynek niedźwiedzia zakończył się w listopadzie ubiegłego
    > roku.
    >
    >
    > Jacek Rzeźniczek
    > Secus Asset Management
    >
    >
    >
    > http://www.inwestycje.pl/gpw/aktualnosci_gpw/gospoda
    rka_w_dol__gielda_niekoniecznie;48404;0.html
    >
    >



  • 3. Data: 2009-01-31 16:10:39
    Temat: Re: Dno giełdowe wyprzedza dno recesji
    Od: "Kudlaty" <t...@n...onet.pl>



    Użytkownik "dejwidziu" <d...@w...pl> napisał w wiadomości
    news:gm1kbv$nri$1@inews.gazeta.pl...
    >> Podobieństwo giełdowej bessy z lat 1973-74 do obecnej 2007-2008 jest
    >> uderzające. Świadczy o tym nie tylko porównywalna skala spadków i warunki
    >> makroekonomiczne, ale także układ techniczny amerykańskiego indeksu
    >> S&P500. Identyczna struktura spadkowych fal, skrajny poziom emocji,
    >> strachu i wyprzedania rynku to tylko niektóre z przesłanek pozwalających
    >> przypuszczać, że rynek niedźwiedzia zakończył się w listopadzie ubiegłego
    >> roku.

    nic nowego nie odkryli to juz bylo wiadomo przed swietami. zeszlego roku.
    Sprawa ma jednak inne znaczenie, w owym okresie USA (1974) miala miejsca
    pracy ktore nie parowaly. Obecnie jest zanik miejsc pracy bezpowrotnie.
    Dlatego Obama i jego poplecznicy beda chcieli nagrodzic te firmy ktore
    tworza miejsca pracy w USA. Poczatkiem tych debat jest przemysl stalowy jako
    zrodlo wszelkiego rozruszania przemyslu. EU zaciekle broni wolnego handlu
    majac na uwadze swoje interesy oraz wpompowany kapital w kraje niewolnicze
    jak europa srodkowo-wschodnia.
    Dlatego tez wolny handel bedzie bastionem o ktorym sie mowi glosno.
    Obama bedzie caly czas napieral majac na uwadze ze jako pierwszy czarnoskory
    musi wykazac sie ponadprzecietnym IQ udowadniajac ze jest ziomal z bialymi.
    Jesli nie powiedzie sie mu, konsekwencje beda dosc tragiczne w skutkach.
    Czarnoskorzy beda przez nastepne generacje zyly z tym pietnem. Biali
    oczywscie zrozumieja ale czarnoskorzy sami sie ukamienuja.



  • 4. Data: 2009-01-31 21:15:22
    Temat: Re: Dno giełdowe wyprzedza dno recesji
    Od: Bufon z PO <i...@i...invalid>

    On Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:10:39 +0100, Kudlaty wrote:

    > Użytkownik "dejwidziu" <d...@w...pl> napisał w wiadomości
    > news:gm1kbv$nri$1@inews.gazeta.pl...
    >>> Podobieństwo giełdowej bessy z lat 1973-74 do obecnej 2007-2008 jest
    >>> uderzające. Świadczy o tym nie tylko porównywalna skala spadków i
    >>> warunki makroekonomiczne, ale także układ techniczny amerykańskiego
    >>> indeksu S&P500. Identyczna struktura spadkowych fal, skrajny poziom
    >>> emocji, strachu i wyprzedania rynku to tylko niektóre z przesłanek
    >>> pozwalających przypuszczać, że rynek niedźwiedzia zakończył się w
    >>> listopadzie ubiegłego roku.
    >
    > nic nowego nie odkryli to juz bylo wiadomo przed swietami. zeszlego
    > roku. Sprawa ma jednak inne znaczenie, w owym okresie USA (1974) miala
    > miejsca pracy ktore nie parowaly. Obecnie jest zanik miejsc pracy
    > bezpowrotnie. Dlatego Obama i jego poplecznicy beda chcieli nagrodzic te
    > firmy ktore tworza miejsca pracy w USA. Poczatkiem tych debat jest
    > przemysl stalowy jako zrodlo wszelkiego rozruszania przemyslu. EU
    > zaciekle broni wolnego handlu majac na uwadze swoje interesy oraz
    > wpompowany kapital w kraje niewolnicze jak europa srodkowo-wschodnia.
    > Dlatego tez wolny handel bedzie bastionem o ktorym sie mowi glosno.
    > Obama bedzie caly czas napieral majac na uwadze ze jako pierwszy
    > czarnoskory musi wykazac sie ponadprzecietnym IQ udowadniajac ze jest
    > ziomal z bialymi. Jesli nie powiedzie sie mu, konsekwencje beda dosc
    > tragiczne w skutkach. Czarnoskorzy beda przez nastepne generacje zyly z
    > tym pietnem. Biali oczywscie zrozumieja ale czarnoskorzy sami sie
    > ukamienuja.

    Mylisz sie to Europa nie zezwala na wolny handel. Ma najwieksza cla,
    wieksze niz w USA i Chinach tylko ze nie nazwa cel clami ale dla zmyly
    podatkiem VAT i akcyza

    Pomysl dla Tuska jak walczyc z recesja:
    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/01/27/poland.we
    bsite.hanging/


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